Quick question: how likely do you think it’ll be that Singapore lifts its Circuit Breaker (CB) measures on 4 May?
You’re probably thinking, pretty unlikely, especially after you read this article about asymptomatic Covid-19 cases and its transmissible period (how long the carrier will continue to spread the virus) of 28 days.
Guess what?
Pretty unlikely will probably become very unlikely after you hear about what the World Health Organisation (WHO) has to say.
WHO Chief Said COVID-19 is 10 Times Deadlier Than H1N1; Suggests Control Measures be Lifted Slowly
On 15 Apr 2020, World Health Organisation (WHO) chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said, in a virtual conference, that Covid-19 is ten times deadlier than the swine flu (H1N1) which happened back in 2009.
As of the time of writing, 1.98 million people in the world have been infected with the coronavirus and 126,539 people have died to it.
H1N1, on the other hand, has killed 18,500 according to the WHO.
On the other hand, a medical publication, The Lancet review, estimated the number of H1N1 deaths to be between 151,700 and 575,400.
They have included the estimated number of deaths in Africa and South-east Asia, which WHO did not take into account.
Reader Bao: So…who should we believe?
Well, dear baobao, like my mother always say, better be safe than sorry. Let’s just believe it’s deadlier, even though WHO’s track record for Covid-19’s a bit sketchy.
Vaccine Needed To Fully Rein In Covid-19
Covid-19 spreads really quick, Mr Tedros said, and now, we know it’s ten times deadlier.
This means that control measures must be lifted slowly, bit by bit, instead of all at one go.
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While more than half of the world’s population are now under lockdown, he warns that the “resurgence and reintroduction of Covid-19” will happen explosively due to our “global interconnectedness”.
He concluded that in order to fully rein in the Covid-19 coronavirus, a vaccine must be developed.
And this vaccine would be available “12 months later” at the earliest.
So Are We Fated To Be On CB Until The End Of The Year?
Maybe. Maybe not.
According to WHO, countries must have the right public health measures in place.
“Control measures can only be lifted if the right public health measures are in place, including significant capacity for contact tracing.”
And we all know that when it comes to contact tracing, Singapore’s pretty much the gold standard.
As for when Singapore will finally lift the CB measures, it all depends on the six-step checklist that the WHO will issue “soon” to member countries as a guideline.
“The most important one is, is your transmission controlled?”
At the end of the day, it all comes back to whether Singaporeans will obey the CB measures or continue to be cb.
One way to show that Singapore has control of the transmission is to have as little unlinked local cases as possible.
Unlinked cases basically mean the authorities have no idea where the infection clusters are in Singapore (they’ve lost control), while linked cases basically mean they can control the spread (somewhat).
TL; DR: #StayHome. Our rice bowls depend on everyone staying home.
Meanwhile, China is now racing to get the vaccine out and has already approved two clinical trials for experimental vaccines on 14 Apr 2020.