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The United States of America might soon have a new president.

Today (3 Nov) is Election Day, the day where Americans take to the polls to cast their ballots for their presidential candidate of choice.

(It’s still 2 Nov in the US, though)

This year, Republican Donald Trump is going head to head with Democrat Joe Biden.

Typically, voters would make their choice, the authorities will tally the votes, the new president would be announced, and everyone would accept the result.

But we’re forgetting that nothing “typical” or “normal” happens when Donald Trump is leader of your country.

Trump has not only raised unfounded concerns about fraudulent votes, but he has also said that he may not accept the outcome of the election if he loses, tainting the democracy on which America prides itself.

If you’re eager to find out the results of the election, you’ve probably come here for an exact announcement time.

But, just like distributing TraceTogether tokens to Singaporeans, it’s not that simple. 

Results Not Actually Tallied On Election Day

In the last couple of weeks, Trump has asserted that the results should be announced at the end of Election Day, even if  all the votes haven’t been counted yet.

Why?

Because he believes every vote should be “counted, tabulated, finished” by midnight in a fair election.

However, this is not only impossible – over 97 million Americans have already voted – it is also historically inaccurate.

In reality, it has never been possible to tally all the votes by the end of Election Day, due to the large number of voters across the country.

We think that the winner is already known on Election Day because a news outlet usually announces it in the night.

But this is just a projection based on partial counts. 

Remember how news outlets in Singapore announced sample counts while we were waiting for the actual results in the 2020 general election?

These sample counts gave an early indication of the possible results, though they had a margin of error.

In the US, news organisations felt confident enough to announce a winner based on partial counts because one candidate was usually far ahead, and given the outstanding ballots and states where they are from, the other candidate was unlikely to bridge the gap.

Contrary to what Trump believes, no state in the US is legally expected to tally and announce their results by the end of Election Day.

In fact, while some states like Delaware have a deadline of two days after Election Day to count the votes, others like California have more than a month to do so.

This means that it could take days or even weeks to know for sure who the winner is.

And thanks to the Covid-19 pandemic, this process could be prolonged.

Mail-in Ballots

Unlike Singapore, citizens in the US have a number of ways they can vote.

These are:

• in-person voting
• online voting
• mail-in voting

Usually, Americans would vote in person, unless they have a disability or condition that prevents them from leaving their house.

In that instance, they could submit their votes by mail.

This year, due to the pandemic, millions of citizens have chosen to mail their ballots instead of doing it in person, to prevent spreading and contracting Covid-19.

The only issue with this is that postal votes typically take longer to count as they have to go through more verification steps, such as a signature and address check.

And this is precisely why the final election results shouldn’t be announced on election night.

Why Early Results May Not Be Accurate

See, different states in the US have different rules when it comes to voting.

For instance, some states such as Florida and Ohio allow processing of mail-in ballots to start weeks before election day.

This means that for these states, it may be possible to call a winner on election night.

However, other states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin don’t allow early votes to be processed until Election Day, which is a real problem in the 2020 presidential election.

This year, 97.6 million Americans voted early, either in person or by mail, far surpassing the total early vote in the 2016 presidential election.

In fact, early votes account for two-thirds of the number of votes cast in the entire 2016 election.

Since different states begin processing early votes at different times, early results or partial counts may not be accurate enough to predict a winner. 

Why Trump is Against Mail-in Ballots & Counting Votes Past Election Day

For months, Trump has been claiming that mail-in ballots are dangerous because it will lead to fraud, a claim that has been debunked several times.

And since most Trump supporters are against Covid-19 restrictions such as social distancing and wearing masks, most of them are against mail-in ballots as well, and have chosen to vote in person.

This means that voters who cast their ballots by mail are disproportionately Democrats, while most Republicans have chosen to vote in person.

Given that some states don’t permit processing of mail-in votes until Election Day, this gives them very little time to tally a record number of early votes.

As most of these early, mail-in votes are from Biden supporters, Trump hopes to delegitimise and even disregard these early votes once Election Day hits midnight, as most of the votes that have already been counted are likely to have come from his supporters. 

Expect Delayed Results

So, the truthful answer to the burning question as to when the election results be announced is we have no idea. 

In the 2016 election, Trump’s win over Hillary Clinton was called around midnight on Election Day.

If a news outlet announces a winner this year at the same time, this means Singaporeans will see it at around 12pm or 1pm on Wednesday (4 Nov).

However, due to all the reasons cited above, it will likely not be accurate.

Still, we shouldn’t be too impatient.

As The New York Times put it, delayed results wouldn’t be evidence of a conspiracy, “but of the electoral system working as it should, by counting every vote.”